Jonatán Lemus
Research
Email: jonatanlemus@utexas.edu
Research Interests: Populism, Democratic Backsliding, Political Parties, Federalism, Judicial Politics, Voter Behavior, Latin American Politics, US-Latin America Relations
Bio
I am Jonatán Lemus, a Ph.D. candidate in Government at the University of Texas at Austin. I am passionate about producing research that addresses the world's most pressing issues.
I began my academic journey with a B.A. in Government from Harvard University, then returned to my hometown in Guatemala City, where I spent seven years working in business and politics while also appearing regularly as a political commentator on national television and radio. These experiences continue to shape the questions I bring to my scholarship.
At UT Austin, I study populism and democratic backsliding in Latin America and beyond, integrating behavioral and institutional approaches with diverse methodologies to explain how populist leaders rise and consolidate power.
My dissertation, “The Insider Advantage: A New Path to Populist Hegemony in Latin America”, investigates how leaders who emerge from within established parties and have previous executive experience cultivate the loyalty of voters and elites, making them more effective at consolidating power. I conducted extensive fieldwork in Mexico, Brazil, and El Salvador, implementing online survey experiments and collecting over 40,000 primary and secondary sources.
As an award-winning educator, I have taught courses in both Spanish and English at the University of Texas at Austin and at Universidad Francisco Marroquín in Guatemala.
My work has been awarded fellowships from the Government Department at the University of Texas at Austin, the Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies, and the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
Research
My current research examines the sources of voter and elite loyalty to populist leaders and the conditions under which populists leverage this loyalty to capture state institutions. I employ a mixed-methods approach that combines online survey experiments, analyses of representative surveys, regression discontinuity designs, elite interviews across 12 cities in El Salvador, Mexico, and Brazil, and the review of more than 40,000 primary and secondary sources. I also draw on an original dataset of populist leaders in Latin America since 1989.
Working Papers
The Insider Advantage: How Populists Convert Partisans into Loyalists to Achieve Hegemony
Theories of democratic backsliding typically emphasize populist outsiders who mobilize unorganized followers to weaken institutions. Yet not all populists follow this path.
This paper argues that some leaders enjoy an “insider advantage”—they emerge within an established party and have executive experience before rising to power—which allows them to follow an alternative path to success.
Insider populists convert established partisans into loyalists, cultivating a stable base that persists despite poor performance or disagreements and extends support to their endorsed down-ballot candidates. Voter loyalty reshapes elite incentives, encouraging cooperation rather than resistance, which facilitates institutional capture.
Using a mixed-methods approach, the paper develops this argument through the case of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador and demonstrates its broader relevance through the case of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico. These and other cases in Latin America show that, while outsiders rarely succeed, insiders pose a pervasive threat to liberal democracy.
Dividing Loyalties: How Federalism Disrupts Personalistic Rule
The literature on democratic backsliding suggests that populists thrive when facing weak institutions. In this paper, I argue that this argument fails to account for variation in populist success in contexts of similar institutional strength.
I propose that constitutional designs, such as federalism, can limit populists’ ability to maintain the loyalty of their coalitions.
First, federalism makes it harder for populists to engage in personalistic policymaking, which weakens voter loyalty. Second, federalism decentralizes resources during policy implementation, allowing elites both inside and outside the populist coalition to cultivate their own electoral bases, reducing their loyalty. Third, federalism introduces veto points that complicate institutional capture, such as a second legislative chamber and state courts.
I am testing this theory by conducting a process-tracing analysis comparing El Salvador, Mexico, and Brazil.
Dissertation Book Project
The Insider Advantage: A New Path to Populist Hegemony in Latin America
My dissertation book project explains the divergent trajectories of three contemporary populist leaders in Latin America: Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. It argues that the combination of the insider advantage and federalism explain these leaders’ trajectories. In El Salvador, Bukele had the insider advantage and operated in a centralized system, which enabled him to consolidate the loyalty of voters and elites and swiftly take over institutions, leading to a personalistic hegemony. In Mexico, AMLO also had the insider advantage, which gave him a strong voter base, but federalism reduced elite loyalty and slowed the takeover, pushing him toward a party-based hegemony. In Brazil, Bolsonaro lacked the insider advantage and faced the constraints of a federal system, which weakened both voter and elite loyalty, culminating in his electoral defeat after one term.
Book Chapters
Other Publications
Teaching
I have taught courses at the University of Texas at Austin (UT) and at the Francisco Marroquin University (UFM) in Guatemala in both Spanish and English.
Courses Taught
1
Instructor
University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX
  • Gov312L: Policies and Issues in American Government, The United States Policy in the Western Hemisphere. Spring and Fall 2025
  • Average student rating: 4.35 in a scale from 1 to 5
2
Co-Instructor
University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX
  • US-Mexico Relations. Fall 2022 and Fall 2024.
  • Gov312L: U.S National Security Policy - Summer 2025
  • Average student rating: 4.6 in a scale from 1 to 5
3
Teaching Assistant
University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX
  • The Politics of Development in Latin America. Spring 2021 and Spring 2023.
  • Intro to American Government. Fall 2021.
  • The Politics of Mexico. Spring 2022.
4
Instructor
Francisco Marroquin University, Guatemala City, 2017-2020
  • Introduction to Comparative Politics
  • Introduction to Political Science
  • Comparative Politics of Latin America
  • Guatemalan Politics
  • Great Books seminars on Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America
  • Average student rating: A
Recognized Excellence
Awarded two teaching awards in Spring and Fall 2020 at UFM, and the Outstanding Teaching Award as a teaching assistant in Fall 2022 at UT Austin.
High Student Evaluations
Over 90% of students at UT strongly agree or agree that I am approachable, communicate course content effectively, and show engagement with the course.
Adaptability
Experienced in teaching diverse student populations, adapting methods to fit varied contexts and backgrounds in both Spanish and English.
Fellowships and Awards
My research has been supported by various grants, fellowships, and awards, recognizing academic excellence and valuable contributions:
Summer Dissertation Fellowship
Government Department, University of Texas at Austin, Summer 2024
Graduate School Continuing Fellowship
University of Texas at Austin, Fall 2023-Spring 2024
Mercatus Center, Fall 2022-Spring 2023
Government Department, University of Texas at Austin, Fall 2022
Summer Dissertation Fellowship
Government Department, University of Texas at Austin, Summer 2022
Tinker Field Research Grant
Teresa Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies, Summer 2022
Mercatus Center, Fall 2021-Spring 2022
Outstanding Teaching Assistant Award
Government Department, University of Texas at Austin, Fall 2022
Summer Dissertation Fellowship
Government Department, University of Texas at Austin, Summer 2021
Best Teaching Award
Francisco Marroquin University, Fall 2020
Best Teaching Award
Francisco Marroquin University, Spring 2020
Media Participation
From 2014 to 2020, I actively engaged with various media platforms, contributing significantly to public discourse. I wrote over 90 opinion articles for Guatemalan media, was invited to appear on more than 100 radio and TV shows, and even hosted my own weekly radio program. My Twitter “X” account consistently reached over 2 million views annually.
Below is a select collection of my media appearances: